Consensus PnL -$271K · win rate 74% (1199–421, n=1620) · PM monthly #188 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-271.3K
Record
1199W / 421L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 1620 settled
Batting Avg
58.6%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#605
Source
PM monthly #188
Record (90 d)
557/593 · 94%
Trades
1,280
Markets
1,815
Volume
$11.2M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerTeam Falcons $944 · now 34¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (56% of 60)
Specialties
1,446 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 76¢- Crypto
+21 pts
side won 84% of 147 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +23%
- Esports
+13 pts
side won 88% of 675 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +12%
- Tennis
+8 pts
side won 88% of 395 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 72% of 25 at an average 74¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 31% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 65% of 120)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 84% of 258)
- 70¢ and up: 73%(won 92% of 1052)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.