Consensus PnL $12K · win rate 54% (7–6, n=13) · was PM monthly #902 · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$12.0K
Record
7W / 6L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 13 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1542
Source
PM monthly #902
Trades
3
Markets
38
Volume
$77.1K
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 5 on the consensus side (40%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $11K · now 41¢ · in at 67¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $6.1K · now 39¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.7K · now 28¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (No)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over $295 · now 64¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (52% of 37)
- Will Jong KRC Genk win on 2026-11-01?No $17 · now 61¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
19 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 56¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where hydra1248's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 68%(won 46% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 50% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.