Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 73¢ · $87K held · ends Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$86.5K

Combined PnL

-$139.31

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 72.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$62.4K

Total Shares86,101

Combined PnL+$513.08

Yes5 traders

Total Value$24.1K

Total Shares89,414

Combined PnL-$652.39

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 72¢	$49.4K	$49.8K	+$355.55	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$21.9K	$21.1K	-$390.26	65% 1758-962 (2720)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 71.9¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$66.29	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 70.7¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$52.98	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
HY hydra1248CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$245.9	57% 13-10 (23)
CA Cannae	Noavg 70.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$34.71	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$344.34	$320.59	-$17.81	59% 66-45 (111)
HRTrading	Noavg 72.3¢	$303	$303.19	+$2.42	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$89.62	$91.28	+$1.66	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 70¢	$31.5	$32.4	+$1.13	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.35	-$0.08	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$49,429.66

Value

$49.8K

PnL

+$355.55

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$21,854.83

Value

$21.1K

PnL

-$390.26

Record

65%

1758-962 (2720)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$8,224.3

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$66.29

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,676.11

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$52.98

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

hydra1248CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,950.94

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$245.9

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

Cannae

Invested

$1,010.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$34.71

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

PLACEYOURBETS123CTR

Yes

Invested

$344.34

Value

$320.59

PnL

-$17.81

Record

59%

66-45 (111)

HRTrading

Invested

$303

Value

$303.19

PnL

+$2.42

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.62

Value

$91.28

PnL

+$1.66

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$32.4

PnL

+$1.13

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.