Consensus PnL $16K · win rate 36% (584–1056, n=1640) · was PM monthly #982 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$15.7K
Record
584W / 1056L
Win Rate
36.0%
of 1640 settled
Batting Avg
81.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2142
Source
PM monthly #982
Trades
669
Markets
2,114
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $441 · now 6¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
1,483 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 41¢- Esports
+3 pts
side won 44% of 1163 · avg entry 42¢
ROI −1%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 40% of 159 · avg entry 36¢
ROI +3%
- Tennis
+17 pts
side won 60% of 10 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +14%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 40% of 87 at an average 45¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 17% of 390)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 40% of 560)
- 50–70¢: 34%(won 64% of 509)
- 70¢ and up: 2%(won 100% of 24)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.