Consensus PnL -$1.7M · win rate 52% (302–279, n=581) · was PM monthly #943 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.7M
Record
302W / 279L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 581 settled
Batting Avg
77.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1629
Source
PM monthly #943
Trades
460
Markets
776
Volume
$20.1M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?No $94 · now 26¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
535 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 55¢- Soccer
+9 pts
side won 70% of 176 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 51% of 356 at an average 52¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 17%(won 16% of 91)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 42% of 115)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 69% of 166)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 81% of 163)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.