Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 76¢ · $39K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$39.4K

Combined PnL

$13.9K

Smart Money Entry

45.9¢ → 75.5¢

+64% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$38.3K

Total Shares51,050

Combined PnL+$14.9K

No7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,586

Combined PnL-$972.49

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
alphaalii	Yesavg 41.5¢	$18.6K	$33.6K	+$15.0K	— 12-4 (16)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 77¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$100	81% 250-58 (308)
18 1881aa	Yesavg 81.3¢	$912.01	$909.84	-$2.18	71% 380-154 (534)
alanhuttonCTR	Noavg 26¢	$589.57	$625	+$35.43	68% 335-158 (493)
DragontreeCTR	Noavg 81¢	$734.52	$226.71	-$507.82	58% 1250-888 (2138)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR	Noavg 82¢	$410	$125	-$285	88% 2229-292 (2521)
IP ipop00CTR	Noavg 50¢	$187.5	$93.75	-$93.75	53% 385-344 (729)
TT tttt123CTR	Noavg 85.7¢	$171.3	$50	-$121.3	72% 1535-585 (2120)
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$19.19	$23.59	+$4.4	69% 404-180 (584)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Noavg 69¢	$6.9	$2.45	-$4.45	69% 156-69 (225)

alphaalii

Yes

Invested

$18,620.31

Value

$33.6K

PnL

+$15.0K

Record

—

12-4 (16)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$3,850

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$100

Record

81%

250-58 (308)

1881aa

Yes

Invested

$912.01

Value

$909.84

PnL

-$2.18

Record

71%

380-154 (534)

alanhuttonCTR

Invested

$589.57

Value

$625

PnL

+$35.43

Record

68%

335-158 (493)

DragontreeCTR

Invested

$734.52

Value

$226.71

PnL

-$507.82

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04CTR

Invested

$410

Value

$125

PnL

-$285

Record

88%

2229-292 (2521)

ipop00CTR

Invested

$187.5

Value

$93.75

PnL

-$93.75

Record

53%

385-344 (729)

tttt123CTR

Invested

$171.3

Value

$50

PnL

-$121.3

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100

Invested

$19.19

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$4.4

Record

69%

404-180 (584)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Invested

$6.9

Value

$2.45

PnL

-$4.45

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

7 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpYes 50% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.8%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.