Back to Traders
4E
Consensus PnL $236 · win rate 44% (14–18, n=32) · was PM monthly #846 · holds 3 consensus positions
0x4ee44376...85c218efPolymarket
🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$236.12
Record
14W / 18L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 32 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2027
Source
PM monthly #846
Trades
10
Markets
39
Volume
$136.6K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $35K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (85% of 41)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $6.4K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $6.0K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
Specialties
16 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 57¢- NBA
+41 pts
side won 91% of 11 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +45%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 67% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 56%(won 100% of 9)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.