Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

72 of 81 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 96¢ · $3.3M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$3.3M

Combined PnL

$336.9K

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 95.5¢

+13% since entry · 72 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

72 of 81 top traders (89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No72 traders

Total Value$3.3M

Total Shares3,474,716

Combined PnL+$355.2K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares142,675

Combined PnL$-18.3K

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

72 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 88% · 40

Aligned

sharpNo 95% · 39

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 57

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 44

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 91.7¢	$649.5K	$679.5K	+$27.1K	85% 605-108 (713)
DE denizz	Noavg 82¢	$476.9K	$539.6K	+$62.7K	68% 597-284 (881)
Erasmus.	Noavg 82.2¢	$139.9K	$273.8K	+$60.7K	65% 393-215 (608)
AF aff3	Noavg 90.8¢	$212.2K	$217.9K	+$5.6K	80% 171-44 (215)
TE TeamA	Noavg 79.3¢	$150.2K	$180.9K	+$30.7K	— 2-0 (2)
SH shibagege	Noavg 90.2¢	$115.8K	$123.3K	+$6.8K	52% 196-181 (377)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 88.8¢	$107.4K	$116.1K	+$8.1K	73% 196-73 (269)
scout	Noavg 93.3¢	$103.8K	$106.1K	+$2.4K	90% 762-81 (843)
TH thoodr	Noavg 94.3¢	$94.3K	$96.0K	+$1.3K	96% 631-24 (655)
WA wan123	Noavg 41.3¢	$35.6K	$82.2K	+$46.6K	39% 196-304 (500)
ST stupid22	Noavg 87.3¢	$75.5K	$76.1K	+$615.22	94% 411-26 (437)
Dripx	Noavg 95¢	$73.9K	$74.7K	+$388.89	76% 41-13 (54)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 94.7¢	$68.3K	$69.3K	-$138.11	68% 124-59 (183)
CL Clicker1	Noavg 84.5¢	$54.9K	$62.4K	+$7.1K	— 10-9 (19)
Anjun	Noavg 83.6¢	$50.2K	$57.3K	+$7.1K	55% 4925-3986 (8911)
WO wokerjoesleeper	Noavg 59.1¢	$33.0K	$52.9K	+$19.9K	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
SwissMiss	Noavg 54.4¢	$30.0K	$52.9K	+$22.6K	66% 476-245 (721)
eCash	Noavg 90.7¢	$18.1K	$38.6K	+$6.4K	68% 330-155 (485)
manekineko	Noavg 91.9¢	$36.7K	$38.4K	+$1.5K	84% 365-71 (436)
CO cocos228	Noavg 78.5¢	$5.7K	$38.1K	+$6.2K	72% 68-27 (95)
GoriIIa	Noavg 85.1¢	$37.2K	$37.4K	+$235.09	73% 229-85 (314)
debased	Noavg 71.2¢	$34.0K	$34.1K	+$77.56	58% 2317-1682 (3999)
HO hopedieslast	Noavg 51.1¢	$32.3K	$33.4K	+$1.2K	59% 118-81 (199)
AV Avamax	Noavg 91.3¢	$29.7K	$30.6K	+$926.21	81% 421-101 (522)
Ryxon21	Noavg 90¢	$27.0K	$28.8K	+$1.6K	71% 318-130 (448)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$649,500.3

Value

$679.5K

PnL

+$27.1K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

denizz

Invested

$476,908.56

Value

$539.6K

PnL

+$62.7K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

Erasmus.

Invested

$139,869.41

Value

$273.8K

PnL

+$60.7K

Record

65%

393-215 (608)

aff3

Invested

$212,243.86

Value

$217.9K

PnL

+$5.6K

Record

80%

171-44 (215)

TeamA

Invested

$150,235.17

Value

$180.9K

PnL

+$30.7K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

shibagege

Invested

$115,840.67

Value

$123.3K

PnL

+$6.8K

Record

52%

196-181 (377)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$107,355.64

Value

$116.1K

PnL

+$8.1K

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

scout

Invested

$103,773.78

Value

$106.1K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

90%

762-81 (843)

thoodr

Invested

$94,250

Value

$96.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

wan123

Invested

$35,555.78

Value

$82.2K

PnL

+$46.6K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

stupid22

Invested

$75,474.97

Value

$76.1K

PnL

+$615.22

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

Dripx

Invested

$73,888.15

Value

$74.7K

PnL

+$388.89

Record

76%

41-13 (54)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$68,330.22

Value

$69.3K

PnL

-$138.11

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

Clicker1

Invested

$54,926.83

Value

$62.4K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

—

10-9 (19)

Anjun

Invested

$50,198.81

Value

$57.3K

PnL

+$7.1K

Record

55%

4925-3986 (8911)

wokerjoesleeper

Invested

$33,043

Value

$52.9K

PnL

+$19.9K

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

SwissMiss

Invested

$29,956.25

Value

$52.9K

PnL

+$22.6K

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

eCash

Invested

$18,127.49

Value

$38.6K

PnL

+$6.4K

Record

68%

330-155 (485)

manekineko

Invested

$36,749.98

Value

$38.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

84%

365-71 (436)

cocos228

Invested

$5,654.27

Value

$38.1K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

GoriIIa

Invested

$37,205.11

Value

$37.4K

PnL

+$235.09

Record

73%

229-85 (314)

debased

Invested

$34,014.63

Value

$34.1K

PnL

+$77.56

Record

58%

2317-1682 (3999)

hopedieslast

Invested

$32,261.35

Value

$33.4K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

118-81 (199)

Avamax

Invested

$29,663.98

Value

$30.6K

PnL

+$926.21

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

Ryxon21

Invested

$26,999.99

Value

$28.8K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

72 of 81 top traders (89%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

72 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 88% · 40

Aligned

sharpNo 95% · 39

Aligned

sniperNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 65% · 23

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 89% · 57

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 44

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.