Consensus PnL $200K · win rate 80% (291–71, n=362) · was PM monthly #562 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$200.2K
Record
291W / 71L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 362 settled
Batting Avg
55.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#436
Source
PM monthly #562 + pinned
Trades
18,937
Markets
827
Volume
$5.9M
Specialties
593 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 79¢- Politics
+6 pts
side won 95% of 74 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +8%
- Tech
+2 pts
side won 90% of 39 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +2%
- Culture
+4 pts
side won 96% of 23 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +9%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 92% of 12 at an average 96¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 8% of 83)
- 30–50¢: 5%(won 40% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 65% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 97% of 449)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.