Culture: what top Polymarket traders hold
Celebrities, internet culture and everything popular. These are the Culture markets on Polymarket in which at least five of the top traders we track hold a position, with the side most of them hold (the consensus), what share of them hold it and the market's own price for that side.
A consensus is a head count of who holds what, not a probability, and following it did not pay on average in our backtests — see how it works.
- Live consensus markets
- 14
- Recently settled, consensus right
- 5 of 5
- Prices as of
- Nov 1, 14:41 UTC
Live Culture consensus markets (14)
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 71%10 of 14 tradersMarket price 97¢$83K held
- Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?Traders hold No 67%8 of 12 tradersMarket price 94¢$35K held
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?Traders hold No 50%4 of 9 tradersMarket price 89¢$37K held
- Viktor Orbán arrested by...?Traders hold No 78%7 of 9 tradersMarket price 88¢$6K held
- Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Traders hold No 100%7 of 7 tradersMarket price 96¢$42K held
- Ilhan Omar arrested by December 31, 2026?Traders hold No 71%5 of 7 tradersMarket price 77¢$11K held
- Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?Traders hold No 43%3 of 7 tradersMarket price 96¢$1K held
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027?Traders hold No 83%5 of 6 tradersMarket price 77¢$8K held
- Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Traders hold No 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 83¢$3K held
- Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?Traders hold No 67%4 of 6 tradersMarket price 96¢$2K held
- Will Mark Carney be TIME Person of the Year 2026?Traders hold No 100%6 of 6 tradersMarket price 83¢$830 held
- Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?Traders hold No 60%3 of 5 tradersMarket price 97¢$4K held
- Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 77¢$2K held
- Will James Comey be arrested before 2027?Traders hold No 40%2 of 5 tradersMarket price 92¢$588 held
Top traders in Culture
Tracked traders with 10 or more settled Culture consensus markets whose side won more often than its entry price implied, ranked by how much (on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short lucky run does not rank first). These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero.
- 1.WongKimArk+39 ptsside won 82% of 11 · avg entry 43¢ · ROI +29%
- 2.balthazar+21 ptsside won 96% of 25 · avg entry 75¢ · ROI +18%
- 3.wokerjoesleeper+6 ptsside won 99% of 106 · avg entry 93¢ · ROI +4%
- 4.cowcat+20 ptsside won 91% of 22 · avg entry 71¢ · ROI +6%
- 5.lissartter+12 ptsside won 84% of 57 · avg entry 72¢ · ROI +1%
- 6.NoMoreMister+5 ptsside won 95% of 154 · avg entry 91¢ · ROI +3%
- 7.Logan.+7 ptsside won 18% of 51 · avg entry 10¢ · ROI +8%
- 8.Nadmi+10 ptsside won 21% of 28 · avg entry 11¢ · ROI +23%
- 9.cry.eth2+3 ptsside won 9% of 110 · avg entry 6¢ · ROI 0%
- 10.0x79a009b7C0336273Bf3Bc7E1D940aD3e2152B9+9 ptsside won 16% of 19 · avg entry 7¢ · ROI +5%
Recently settled Culture markets
What the tracked traders held when each market settled, and how it came out. A handful of markets says little about the next one.
- Ilhan Omar arrested by October 31, 2026?Result: NoTraders held No 67%consensus was right
- Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time?Result: YesTraders held Yes 62%consensus was right
- Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to less than 2 years in prison?Result: NoTraders held No 67%consensus was right
- Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to at least 5 years in prison?Result: NoTraders held No 50%consensus was right
- Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to 2 to 5 years in prison?Result: NoTraders held No 43%consensus was right
Holders update as the tracked traders trade, and prices refresh about once a minute. Only wallets with a position of at least 1 share count as holders; the side is the one with the most money behind it among holders with $100 or more in the market. PolyConsensus is not affiliated with Polymarket and this is not investment advice. More: all topics, the trader leaderboard, large trades.