Consensus PnL $260K · win rate 74% (1044–359, n=1403) · PM monthly #398 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$260.3K
Record
1044W / 359L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 1403 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#604
Source
PM monthly #398
Trades
1,790
Markets
1,619
Volume
$8.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Spirit $158 · now 56¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Team Yandex)
Specialties
1,133 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 52¢- NBA
+49 pts
side won 99% of 252 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +49%
- NHL
+47 pts
side won 100% of 145 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +44%
- Soccer
+45 pts
side won 97% of 256 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 93% of 40)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 98% of 389)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 98% of 621)
- 70¢ and up: 7%(won 100% of 83)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.