Consensus PnL -$138K · win rate 52% (234–212, n=446) · was PM monthly #760 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-137.6K
Record
234W / 212L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 446 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1092
Source
PM monthly #760
Record (90 d)
148/151 · 98%
Trades
23,212
Markets
567
Volume
$6.2M
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Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Blackpool FC win on 2026-11-07?Yes $7.6K · now 27¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (20% of 10)
Specialties
314 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 54¢- Soccer
+39 pts
side won 92% of 277 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +26%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 60% of 10 at an average 71¢ entry (−11 pts against the price), ROI −28%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 21% of 14)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 90% of 96)
- 50–70¢: 57%(won 93% of 179)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 92% of 25)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.