Consensus PnL -$335K · win rate 67% (541–271, n=812) · was PM monthly #539 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-334.7K
Record
541W / 271L
Win Rate
67.0%
of 812 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#853
Source
PM monthly #539
Record (90 d)
108/165 · 65%
Trades
1,447
Markets
1,073
Volume
$15.8M
Specialties
1,032 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 67¢- NBA
+3 pts
side won 69% of 143 · avg entry 66¢
ROI −1%
- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 62% of 79 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +1%
- NHL
+7 pts
side won 67% of 21 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 61% of 324 at an average 64¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 21% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 42% of 144)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 62% of 389)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 84% of 460)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.