Consensus PnL $34K · win rate 52% (2444–2217, n=4661) · was PM monthly #1000 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$33.8K
Record
2444W / 2217L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 4661 settled
Batting Avg
14.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1609
Source
PM monthly #1000
Trades
1,451
Markets
5,632
Volume
$812.6K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Villanova WildcatsNotre Dame Fighting Irish $332 · now 16¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Villanova Wildcats)
Specialties
2,058 settled consensus markets · held side won 76% at an average entry of 58¢- Soccer
+25 pts
side won 86% of 956 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +20%
- Other Sports
+34 pts
side won 95% of 21 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +29%
- MLB
+17 pts
side won 74% of 316 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +15%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 40% of 48 at an average 42¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 37% of 295)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 61% of 402)
- 50–70¢: 31%(won 82% of 628)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 96% of 733)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.