Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Villanova Wildcats

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Villanova Wildcats (56%) · Villanova Wildcats at 86¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1

Notre Dame Fighting Irish14¢Villanova Wildcats86¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Villanova Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Villanova Wildcats 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$50.1

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 85.5¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidVillanova Wildcats at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Villanova Wildcats

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Notre Dame Fighting Irish14%

Villanova Wildcats86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Villanova Wildcats5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,662

Combined PnL+$201.28

Notre Dame Fighting Irish4 traders

Total Value$649.75

Total Shares2,405

Combined PnL-$151.19

Villanova Wildcats — 56%Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Villanova Wildcatsavg 73.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$202.89	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	Villanova Wildcatsavg 70¢	$569.4	$598.83	+$29.43	51% 209-204 (413)
└ Villanova Wildcats leg	Villanova Wildcatsavg 70¢	$304.76	$304.76	-$0
└ Notre Dame Fighting Irish leg	Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 27¢	$264.64	$294.07	+$29.43
LA lavendergoomsCTR	Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 40.1¢	$492.96	$332.1	-$173.15	52% 2638-2387 (5025)
28 2829CTR	Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 26¢	$271.8	$282.32	+$10.52	46% 425-497 (922)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Villanova Wildcatsavg 69¢	$199.99	$202.89	+$2.9	53% 3213-2834 (6047)
HE Herdonia	Villanova Wildcatsavg 73.6¢	$189.36	$180	-$9.36	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
HRTrading	Villanova Wildcatsavg 75.7¢	$103.94	$110.12	+$6.18	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 19¢	$19	$30	+$11	50% 4583-4520 (9103)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Villanova Wildcatsavg 74¢	$24.42	$23.1	-$1.32	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Notre Dame Fighting Irishavg 16.5¢	$4.89	$5.33	+$0.44	48% 1065-1165 (2230)

HomeRunHazard

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$1,225.23

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$202.89

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$569.4

Value

$598.83

PnL

+$29.43

Record

51%

209-204 (413)

Both legs:

Villanova Wildcats$304.7670¢-$0

Notre Dame Fighting Irish$264.6427¢+$29.43

lavendergoomsCTR

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Invested

$492.96

Value

$332.1

PnL

-$173.15

Record

52%

2638-2387 (5025)

2829CTR

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Invested

$271.8

Value

$282.32

PnL

+$10.52

Record

46%

425-497 (922)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$199.99

Value

$202.89

PnL

+$2.9

Record

53%

3213-2834 (6047)

Herdonia

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$189.36

Value

$180

PnL

-$9.36

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

HRTrading

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$103.94

Value

$110.12

PnL

+$6.18

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Invested

$19

Value

$30

PnL

+$11

Record

50%

4583-4520 (9103)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$24.42

Value

$23.1

PnL

-$1.32

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0.44

Record

48%

1065-1165 (2230)

Research grade

AvoidVillanova Wildcats at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Villanova Wildcats

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Villanova Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.