Consensus PnL -$299K · win rate 56% (41–32, n=73) · was PM monthly #942 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-299.2K
Record
41W / 32L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 73 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1418
Source
PM monthly #942
Trades
73
Markets
83
Volume
$1.9M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?No $189K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (94% of 16)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?No $56K · now 80¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (89% of 28)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?No $48K · now 96¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?No $139 · now 59¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
Specialties
45 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 70¢- Finance
+33 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +18%
- Soccer
+27 pts
side won 100% of 20 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 75% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 100% of 16)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 100% of 22)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.