Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by December 31?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 59¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$8.6K
-$303.91
60.8¢ → 58.5¢
-4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
216h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UM uma003 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $4.7K | $4.4K | -$317.46 | 49% 29-30 (59) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$85 | 57% 1817-1366 (3183) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$61.82 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 RememberAmalek | Noavg 60.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$3.39 | 56% 973-770 (1743) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $156.38 | $149.25 | -$7.13 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
LU luck00004 | Noavg 58¢ | $138.2 | $139.39 | +$1.19 | 48% 32-34 (66) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 64.6¢ | $52.64 | $49.34 | -$3.3 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
DI Dimpled-Foal<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $20.4 | $23.2 | +$3 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
Invested
$4,705.67
Value
$4.4K
PnL
-$317.46
Record
49%
29-30 (59)
oieshfn345Invested
$1,299.75
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$85
Record
57%
1817-1366 (3183)
Invested
$1,431.33
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$61.82
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
RememberAmalekInvested
$1,134.78
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$3.39
Record
56%
973-770 (1743)
Invested
$156.38
Value
$149.25
PnL
-$7.13
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$138.2
Value
$139.39
PnL
+$1.19
Record
48%
32-34 (66)
Invested
$52.64
Value
$49.34
PnL
-$3.3
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$20.4
Value
$23.2
PnL
+$3
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.