Consensus PnL $126K · win rate 62% (850–511, n=1361) · PM monthly #788 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$125.9K
Record
850W / 511L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 1361 settled
Batting Avg
57.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1063
Source
PM monthly #788
Trades
564
Markets
1,556
Volume
$1.4M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5Over $252 · now 47¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
Specialties
825 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 60¢- Soccer
+13 pts
side won 76% of 645 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +14%
- Other Sports
+10 pts
side won 75% of 57 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +25%
- NHL
+9 pts
side won 60% of 20 · avg entry 51¢
ROI −37%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 36% of 36 at an average 40¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 33% of 114)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 52% of 149)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 70% of 234)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 94% of 328)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.