Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

$77.22

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 46.5¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,036

Combined PnL+$77.72

Under3 traders

Total Value$236.11

Total Shares431

Combined PnL-$0.5

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$18	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 44¢	$780.56	$798.3	+$8.87	50% 7125-7171 (14296)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Overavg 45.1¢	$315.77	$325.22	+$9.45	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LU lukibazdonauki754CTR	Overavg 40¢	$224	$252	+$30.8	60% 884-580 (1464)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 43¢	$150.88	$157.89	+$8.77	53% 11582-10087 (21669)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 55¢	$154.46	$155.86	+$1.4	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55.2¢	$51.91	$50.29	-$1.62	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 54¢	$30.24	$29.96	-$0.28	55% 7318-5882 (13200)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$21.82	$23.38	+$1.82	51% 4818-4540 (9358)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$1,620

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$18

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$780.56

Value

$798.3

PnL

+$8.87

Record

50%

7125-7171 (14296)

UpTheBluesCTR

Over

Invested

$315.77

Value

$325.22

PnL

+$9.45

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

lukibazdonauki754CTR

Over

Invested

$224

Value

$252

PnL

+$30.8

Record

60%

884-580 (1464)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$150.88

Value

$157.89

PnL

+$8.77

Record

53%

11582-10087 (21669)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$154.46

Value

$155.86

PnL

+$1.4

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$51.91

Value

$50.29

PnL

-$1.62

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$30.24

Value

$29.96

PnL

-$0.28

Record

55%

7318-5882 (13200)

hi774cCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.82

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$1.82

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 47%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (5 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.