Consensus PnL $19K · win rate 100% (15–0, n=15) · PM monthly #505 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$18.9K
Record
15W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 15 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#12
Source
PM monthly #505
Trades
30
Markets
28
Volume
$151.3K
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 8 on the consensus side (13%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $34K · now 45¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?No $30K · now 85¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $24K · now 73¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $8.2K · now 90¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 26¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?No $1.0K · now 82¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $987 · now 45¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?Yes $523 · now 18¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
8 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 38¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where max1ved's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.