Consensus PnL -$159K · win rate 45% (342–421, n=763) · PM monthly #867 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-158.8K
Record
342W / 421L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 763 settled
Batting Avg
45.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1375
Source
PM monthly #867
Record (90 d)
119/156 · 76%
Trades
1,134
Markets
766
Volume
$2.0M
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Specialties
568 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 56¢- College Basketball
+24 pts
side won 78% of 41 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +27%
- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 67% of 212 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +9%
- MLB
+11 pts
side won 67% of 162 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: NHL — held side won 50% of 28 at an average 54¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −16%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 58% of 112)
- 50–70¢: 77%(won 69% of 440)
- 70¢ and up: 3%(won 88% of 16)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.