Consensus PnL $253K · win rate 54% (492–425, n=917) · was PM monthly #897 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$253.0K
Record
492W / 425L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 917 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1575
Source
PM monthly #897
Record (90 d)
266/396 · 67%
Trades
7,266
Markets
3,883
Volume
$31.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere $1.7K · now 79¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Team Falcons)
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group ANatus Vincere $33 · now 57¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Team Falcons)
Specialties
893 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 50¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 53% of 889 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 30%(won 3% of 267)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 31% of 158)
- 50–70¢: 23%(won 82% of 205)
- 70¢ and up: 29%(won 95% of 263)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.