Consensus PnL $5.3K · win rate 88% (144–20, n=164) · PM monthly #137 · holds 36 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$5.3K
Record
144W / 20L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 164 settled
Batting Avg
22.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#272
Source
PM monthly #137
Trades
229
Markets
252
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
36 in listed consensus markets · 36 of 36 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?No $167K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (77% of 26)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $109K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?No $104K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (95% of 20)
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?No $63K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?No $44K · now 85¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 18)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $44K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?No $44K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?No $38K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (94% of 18)
Specialties
208 settled consensus markets · held side won 93% at an average entry of 96¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where oegdatam's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 93% of 208 at an average 96¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 0% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 94% of 206)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.