Consensus PnL $60K · win rate 88% (7–1, n=8) · hand-picked wallet · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$59.7K
Record
7W / 1L
Win Rate
88.0%
of 8 settled
Batting Avg
55.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#284
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
4,739
Markets
34
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $28K · now 16¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $6 · now 98¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (85% of 41)
Specialties
25 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 92¢- Elections
+8 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +5%
- Economy
+3 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 100% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.