Consensus PnL $6.6K · win rate 90% (1289–139, n=1428) · was PM monthly #562 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$6.6K
Record
1289W / 139L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 1428 settled
Batting Avg
38.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#231
Source
PM monthly #562
Trades
1,046
Markets
2,135
Volume
$15.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Paine Lions vs. Jacksonville DolphinsJacksonville Dolphins $5.6K · now 52¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West?Yes $163 · now 51¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,281 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 77¢- NBA
+33 pts
side won 96% of 399 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +11%
- College Basketball
+23 pts
side won 100% of 122 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +28%
- Soccer
+18 pts
side won 100% of 245 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 81% of 78)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 98% of 135)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 98% of 250)
- 70¢ and up: 64%(won 100% of 818)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.