Paine Lions vs. Jacksonville Dolphins
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Jacksonville Dolphins (67%) · Jacksonville Dolphins at 52¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Jacksonville Dolphins
6
Jacksonville Dolphins 67%
$12.7K
-$555.24
74¢ → 51.9¢
-30% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidJacksonville Dolphins at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Jacksonville Dolphins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omoi0i0 | Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 69.4¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | +$15.97 | 65% 1527-817 (2344) |
US User7429 | Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 66.7¢ | $2.2K | $2.3K | -$282.35 | 55% 8423-6770 (15193) |
LA lavendergooms | Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 92.1¢ | $2.7K | $2.1K | $-1.0K | 53% 2639-2387 (5026) |
 scootergeneCTR | Paine Lionsavg 30.6¢ | $4.4K | $2.0K | +$673.27 | 54% 380-324 (704) |
LO looppauCTR | Paine Lionsavg 45.5¢ | $692.22 | $741.81 | +$49.59 | 99% 11191-72 (11263) |
 hammyandcheese<$100 | Jacksonville Dolphinsavg 63.8¢ | $22.01 | $23.64 | +$1.62 | 55% 406-328 (734) |
Invested
$5,495.16
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$15.97
Record
65%
1527-817 (2344)
Invested
$2,189.03
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$282.35
Record
55%
8423-6770 (15193)
Invested
$2,747.18
Value
$2.1K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
53%
2639-2387 (5026)
scootergeneCTRInvested
$4,444
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$673.27
Record
54%
380-324 (704)
Invested
$692.22
Value
$741.81
PnL
+$49.59
Record
99%
11191-72 (11263)
hammyandcheese<$100Invested
$22.01
Value
$23.64
PnL
+$1.62
Record
55%
406-328 (734)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.