Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.8K
-$140.64
69.6¢ → 50¢
-28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $301.44 | $629.55 | +$328.11 | 50% 1658-1653 (3311) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 71.2¢ | $1.1K | $587.6 | -$273.21 | 37% 16320-28154 (44474) |
 StudyPrediction | Noavg 67.9¢ | $746.32 | $549.5 | -$202.32 | 53% 4594-4008 (8602) |
 probability<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $2.5 | $10.74 | +$6.78 | 42% 1370-1924 (3294) |
Invested
$301.44
Value
$629.55
PnL
+$328.11
Record
50%
1658-1653 (3311)
Invested
$1,131.37
Value
$587.6
PnL
-$273.21
Record
37%
16320-28154 (44474)
StudyPredictionInvested
$746.32
Value
$549.5
PnL
-$202.32
Record
53%
4594-4008 (8602)
probability<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$10.74
PnL
+$6.78
Record
42%
1370-1924 (3294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.