Consensus PnL $7.1K · win rate 54% (87–75, n=162) · PM monthly #462 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$7.1K
Record
87W / 75L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 162 settled
Batting Avg
20.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1528
Source
PM monthly #462
Trades
571
Markets
276
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-11-01?Yes $13K · now 66¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (43% of 14)
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $8.9K · now 99¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (71% of 48)
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $2 · now 0¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
219 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 58¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where p1252's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 52% of 190 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 19% of 54)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 29% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 52% of 52)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 93% of 89)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.