Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (79%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 6

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Dec 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 79%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$-16.6K

Smart Money Entry

19.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,050

Combined PnL+$145.32

Yes11 traders

Total Value$39.03

Total Shares78,054

Combined PnL$-16.7K

No — 21%Yes — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
4751346	Noavg 92¢	$736	$799.6	+$63.6	72% 1257-483 (1740)
TT tttt123	Noavg 62¢	$122.65	$199.89	+$77.25	72% 1535-585 (2120)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 91¢	$45.5	$49.98	+$4.48	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 18.4¢	$10.0K	$29.02	$-11.8K	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$81.4	$2.56	-$78.84	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
p1252CTR	Yesavg 29.7¢	$28.84	$2.3	$-1.4K	54% 105-91 (196)
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR	Yesavg 22.5¢	$911	$1.88	-$909.12	60% 1348-884 (2232)
TO Tobias1909CTR	Yesavg 57¢	$63.27	$1.33	$-1.5K	57% 395-298 (693)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 20.1¢	$363.5	$0.93	-$439.38	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$362.76	$0.53	-$362.22	71% 318-130 (448)
scottxia1988CTR	Yesavg 29¢	$116	$0.2	-$115.8	78% 178-49 (227)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0	$0.15	+$0.15	33% 6263-12990 (19253)
AR arbfinder2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.9¢	$10.89	$0.11	-$63.77	55% 5316-4296 (9612)
ME melganisCTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$29.5	$0.03	-$29.48	75% 1597-541 (2138)

4751346

Invested

$736

Value

$799.6

PnL

+$63.6

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

tttt123

Invested

$122.65

Value

$199.89

PnL

+$77.25

Record

72%

1535-585 (2120)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$45.5

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$4.48

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$10,048.12

Value

$29.02

PnL

$-11.8K

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.4

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$78.84

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

p1252CTR

Yes

Invested

$28.84

Value

$2.3

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

105-91 (196)

0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704CTR

Yes

Invested

$911

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$909.12

Record

60%

1348-884 (2232)

Tobias1909CTR

Yes

Invested

$63.27

Value

$1.33

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

57%

395-298 (693)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$363.5

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$439.38

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$362.76

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$362.22

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

scottxia1988CTR

Yes

Invested

$116

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$115.8

Record

78%

178-49 (227)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

arbfinder2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.89

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$63.77

Record

55%

5316-4296 (9612)

melganisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.5

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$29.48

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 14 top traders (79%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

205 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 83% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.