Consensus PnL $25K · win rate 96% (48–2, n=50) · hand-picked wallet · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$24.8K
Record
48W / 2L
Win Rate
96.0%
of 50 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#144
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
262
Markets
60
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $45K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $4.5K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 27)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $4.5K · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (87% of 47)
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?No $1.9K · now 91¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
Specialties
51 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 97¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where refzer's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 98% of 51)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.