US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

17 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (65%) · Yes at 95¢ · $90K held · ends Nov 4

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 65%

Total Value

$90.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 94.5¢

+12% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 95%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 26 top traders (65%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes17 traders

Total Value$86.2K

Total Shares91,448

Combined PnL+$8.2K

No9 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares74,326

Combined PnL$-11.9K

Yes — 65%No — 35%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 26%

Freshness

Late

318h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 26% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 74% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MEPP	Yesavg 86.5¢	$9.9K	$11.3K	+$1.4K	64% 632-352 (984)
Roflan-ludoman	Yesavg 73.7¢	$10.4K	$10.9K	+$494.2	62% 649-396 (1045)
65 65765757	Yesavg 92.1¢	$10.9K	$10.4K	+$267.82	79% 276-74 (350)
scout	Yesavg 88¢	$8.8K	$9.4K	+$650	90% 762-81 (843)
yen4u	Yesavg 85¢	$6.2K	$6.8K	+$692.15	86% 807-136 (943)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Yesavg 76.2¢	$4.4K	$5.5K	+$1.1K	64% 85-47 (132)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Yesavg 92.2¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$127.59	76% 317-102 (419)
MA MaxVision	Yesavg 73¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	37% 42-72 (114)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Yesavg 72¢	$3.6K	$4.7K	+$1.1K	73% 350-129 (479)
RE refzer	Yesavg 94¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$23.85	96% 51-2 (53)
0X 0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022	Yesavg 90¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$152.47	73% 159-59 (218)
MI MissaoComFlavio	Yesavg 94¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$16.76	75% 233-77 (310)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Yesavg 74¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$512.5	85% 605-108 (713)
classifiedCTR	Noavg 20.6¢	$5.1K	$1.8K	$-3.3K	58% 843-614 (1457)
StarMaster	Yesavg 83¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$324.76	53% 1857-1640 (3497)
tetrase	Yesavg 89.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$67.88	61% 839-543 (1382)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 29.8¢	$6.3K	$1.2K	$-5.1K	61% 21342-13633 (34975)
JSG3	Yesavg 77¢	$852.55	$1.0K	+$193.76	58% 14-10 (24)
petehegsethCTR	Noavg 21.1¢	$2.1K	$560.81	$-1.6K	62% 26-16 (42)
GH ghorrock	Yesavg 85.7¢	$192.4	$210.37	+$17.98	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Noavg 39.6¢	$1.0K	$128.76	-$878.15	32% 4493-9634 (14127)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 29.4¢	$554.56	$103.64	-$450.93	38% 20-32 (52)
HU hugecaulkCTR	Noavg 10¢	$154.41	$77.21	-$69.48	— 2-11 (13)
RO rocky42019CTR	Noavg 20.3¢	$196.18	$59.97	-$136.21	42% 1725-2358 (4083)
2B9SCTR	Noavg 26¢	$258.04	$49.62	-$203.45	18% 3832-17370 (21202)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$9,879.42

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

64%

632-352 (984)

Roflan-ludoman

Yes

Invested

$10,402.9

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$494.2

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

65765757

Yes

Invested

$10,872

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$267.82

Record

79%

276-74 (350)

scout

Yes

Invested

$8,800

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$650

Record

90%

762-81 (843)

yen4u

Yes

Invested

$6,156.42

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$692.15

Record

86%

807-136 (943)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Yes

Invested

$4,449.96

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

LulaVaiPerder

Yes

Invested

$5,203

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$127.59

Record

76%

317-102 (419)

MaxVision

Yes

Invested

$3,650

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

37%

42-72 (114)

M2sx92kljs42

Yes

Invested

$3,591.29

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

refzer

Yes

Invested

$4,484.23

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$23.85

Record

96%

51-2 (53)

0x3fd0190eb137e335db080b9855f90c86849f0022

Yes

Invested

$3,049.45

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$152.47

Record

73%

159-59 (218)

MissaoComFlavio

Yes

Invested

$3,151

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$16.76

Record

75%

233-77 (310)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Yes

Invested

$1,850

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$512.5

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

classifiedCTR

Invested

$5,131

Value

$1.8K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

58%

843-614 (1457)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$1,085.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$324.76

Record

53%

1857-1640 (3497)

tetrase

Yes

Invested

$1,300.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$67.88

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$6,284.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

$-5.1K

Record

61%

21342-13633 (34975)

JSG3

Yes

Invested

$852.55

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$193.76

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

petehegsethCTR

Invested

$2,120.21

Value

$560.81

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

62%

26-16 (42)

ghorrock

Yes

Invested

$192.4

Value

$210.37

PnL

+$17.98

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Invested

$1,019.81

Value

$128.76

PnL

-$878.15

Record

32%

4493-9634 (14127)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$554.56

Value

$103.64

PnL

-$450.93

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

hugecaulkCTR

Invested

$154.41

Value

$77.21

PnL

-$69.48

Record

—

2-11 (13)

rocky42019CTR

Invested

$196.18

Value

$59.97

PnL

-$136.21

Record

42%

1725-2358 (4083)

2B9SCTR

Invested

$258.04

Value

$49.62

PnL

-$203.45

Record

18%

3832-17370 (21202)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 95%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

17 of 26 top traders (65%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 26%

Freshness

Late

318h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

65% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 26% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 60% · 10

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 71% · 14

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 74% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.5%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.