Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 91¢ · $98K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$98.0K

Combined PnL

$6.1K

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 90.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$97.3K

Total Shares107,488

Combined PnL+$6.3K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$740.44

Total Shares7,794

Combined PnL-$194.85

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

2649h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IG IGORS	Noavg 85.4¢	$68.4K	$72.5K	+$4.0K	— 10-1 (11)
RE ReedUpdatee	Noavg 83.4¢	$15.1K	$16.4K	+$1.3K	48% 48-52 (100)
TE TerreMoto	Noavg 79¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$345	80% 168-42 (210)
RE refzer	Noavg 90¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$10.61	96% 51-2 (53)
OL ololololololololo	Noavg 80¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$171.34	35% 41-77 (118)
DumplingBMF	Noavg 76¢	$399.02	$927.65	+$278.63	68% 1830-849 (2679)
AL alwaysOn	Noavg 80.6¢	$685.47	$769.22	+$83.75	77% 632-185 (817)
88 881112CTR	Yesavg 12¢	$922.99	$730.7	-$192.29	38% 567-944 (1511)
Debosnys	Noavg 87¢	$373.36	$381.91	+$8.55	89% 1868-225 (2093)
Donny.T	Noavg 78¢	$195	$226.25	+$31.25	72% 484-187 (671)
JO JoeBlack01CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$12.3	$9.74	-$2.56	60% 474-313 (787)

IGORS

Invested

$68,430.46

Value

$72.5K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

—

10-1 (11)

ReedUpdatee

Invested

$15,100

Value

$16.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

48%

48-52 (100)

TerreMoto

Invested

$2,370

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$345

Record

80%

168-42 (210)

refzer

Invested

$1,909.29

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$10.61

Record

96%

51-2 (53)

ololololololololo

Invested

$1,305.43

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$171.34

Record

35%

41-77 (118)

DumplingBMF

Invested

$399.02

Value

$927.65

PnL

+$278.63

Record

68%

1830-849 (2679)

alwaysOn

Invested

$685.47

Value

$769.22

PnL

+$83.75

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

881112CTR

Yes

Invested

$922.99

Value

$730.7

PnL

-$192.29

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

Debosnys

Invested

$373.36

Value

$381.91

PnL

+$8.55

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

Donny.T

Invested

$195

Value

$226.25

PnL

+$31.25

Record

72%

484-187 (671)

JoeBlack01CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.3

Value

$9.74

PnL

-$2.56

Record

60%

474-313 (787)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

2649h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.5%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.