Consensus PnL $8.4K · win rate 44% (4–5, n=9) · was PM monthly #798 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.4K
Record
4W / 5L
Win Rate
44.0%
of 9 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2031
Source
PM monthly #798
Trades
182
Markets
16
Volume
$262.5K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $594 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?Yes $40 · now 6¢ · in at 6¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3 · now 16¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (45% of 22)
Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 20% at an average entry of 21¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where resuildde's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 80%(won 0% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.