Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (91%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 19, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Apr 19, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 91%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Entry

2.1¢ → 0.8¢

-64% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$916.01

Total Shares923

Combined PnL+$24.51

Yes10 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares297,901

Combined PnL$-3.9K

No — 9%Yes — 91%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

145 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 96.3¢	$891.5	$916.01	+$24.51	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
BU BurstedBubbleCTR	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.1K	$815.51	$-1.3K	— 4-5 (9)
RE resuilddeCTR	Yesavg 1.5¢	$263.12	$678.71	-$627.05	— 2-5 (7)
ST StudentMoneyCTR	Yesavg 2.3¢	$2.4K	$589.75	$-1.3K	71% 828-343 (1171)
FrozenParasiteCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$38.4	$146.12	-$499.33	55% 463-373 (836)
FL flawfenceCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$62.91	$60.4	-$2.51	46% 271-319 (590)
nicoco89CTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$97.98	$23.4	-$74.58	65% 1075-583 (1658)
scottiliciousCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$63.1	$13.46	-$49.64	82% 945-201 (1146)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$9.75	$9.75	+$0	47% 83-94 (177)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$1.2	$1.2	-$0.05	7% 14-187 (201)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yes	$0.92	$0.92	+$0.02	72% 8306-3183 (11489)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$891.5

Value

$916.01

PnL

+$24.51

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

BurstedBubbleCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,093.98

Value

$815.51

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

4-5 (9)

resuilddeCTR

Yes

Invested

$263.12

Value

$678.71

PnL

-$627.05

Record

—

2-5 (7)

StudentMoneyCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,449.3

Value

$589.75

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

71%

828-343 (1171)

FrozenParasiteCTR

Yes

Invested

$38.4

Value

$146.12

PnL

-$499.33

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

flawfenceCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.91

Value

$60.4

PnL

-$2.51

Record

46%

271-319 (590)

nicoco89CTR

Yes

Invested

$97.98

Value

$23.4

PnL

-$74.58

Record

65%

1075-583 (1658)

scottiliciousCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.1

Value

$13.46

PnL

-$49.64

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

83-94 (177)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

14-187 (201)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.02

Record

72%

8306-3183 (11489)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

145 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5398.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

5498.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.