Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 October 26-November 1?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 94¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 2

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$55.5K

Combined PnL

$5.7K

Smart Money Entry

83.6¢ → 93.8¢

+12% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$54.9K

Total Shares57,798

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$566.05

Total Shares10,837

Combined PnL-$445.81

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Noavg 85.2¢	$39.7K	$44.1K	+$4.3K	66% 2458-1291 (3749)
justdance	Noavg 77.6¢	$7.2K	$9.2K	+$2.0K	52% 2726-2552 (5278)
0X 0xDB5	Noavg 62.6¢	$800.36	$616.69	-$76.71	59% 2238-1571 (3809)
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 79¢	$1.6K	$484.13	-$217.12	54% 785-659 (1444)
FI firegold	Noavg 78¢	$390	$469	+$74.75	59% 323-224 (547)
19 196874353278CTR	Yesavg 8.7¢	$577.11	$377.44	-$199.67	45% 212-263 (475)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 7¢	$111.72	$99.75	-$11.97	62% 795-490 (1285)
RE resuilddeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$34.89	$40.04	+$1.72	— 2-5 (7)
PippiTraderCTR	Yesavg 38.1¢	$285.54	$34.94	-$235.22	61% 313-200 (513)
RI Rin2x<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$22.27	$22.51	+$0.19	86% 2156-340 (2496)
PH PhongLeXBTCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$14.56	$13.89	-$0.67	49% 274-288 (562)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Invested

$39,741.25

Value

$44.1K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

66%

2458-1291 (3749)

justdance

Invested

$7,205.77

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

52%

2726-2552 (5278)

0xDB5

Invested

$800.36

Value

$616.69

PnL

-$76.71

Record

59%

2238-1571 (3809)

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$1,589.44

Value

$484.13

PnL

-$217.12

Record

54%

785-659 (1444)

firegold

Invested

$390

Value

$469

PnL

+$74.75

Record

59%

323-224 (547)

196874353278CTR

Yes

Invested

$577.11

Value

$377.44

PnL

-$199.67

Record

45%

212-263 (475)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.72

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$11.97

Record

62%

795-490 (1285)

resuilddeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.89

Value

$40.04

PnL

+$1.72

Record

—

2-5 (7)

PippiTraderCTR

Yes

Invested

$285.54

Value

$34.94

PnL

-$235.22

Record

61%

313-200 (513)

Rin2x<$100

Invested

$22.27

Value

$22.51

PnL

+$0.19

Record

86%

2156-340 (2496)

PhongLeXBTCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.56

Value

$13.89

PnL

-$0.67

Record

49%

274-288 (562)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.1%

93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.