Consensus PnL $13K · win rate 64% (1316–750, n=2066) · was PM monthly #977 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$12.8K
Record
1316W / 750L
Win Rate
64.0%
of 2066 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#966
Source
PM monthly #977
Trades
449
Markets
2,194
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $420 · now 3¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
Specialties
1,978 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 61¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 66% of 1006 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +7%
- Tennis
+4 pts
side won 65% of 419 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+12 pts
side won 59% of 54 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 54% of 139 at an average 54¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 15% of 127)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 46% of 458)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 64% of 742)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 90% of 651)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.