Consensus PnL $109K · win rate 72% (13–5, n=18) · was PM monthly #988 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$109.1K
Record
13W / 5L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 18 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#679
Source
PM monthly #988
Trades
12
Markets
24
Volume
$457.6K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $42K · now 65¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?No $29K · now 94¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (47% of 19)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $363 · now 37¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (66% of 53)
Specialties
10 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 60¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where saftey-first's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 50%(won 100% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.