Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 35 of 53 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

35 of 53 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (66%) · Yes at 37¢ · $193K held · ended Oct 28

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 66%

Total Value

$192.9K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

40.9¢ → 36.9¢

-10% since entry · 33 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

35 of 53 top traders (66%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)35 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No18 traders

Total Value$91.7K

Total Shares144,982

Combined PnL+$11.4K

Yes35 traders

Total Value$101.3K

Total Shares274,331

Combined PnL$-8.5K

No — 34%Yes — 66%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

67 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

66% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 69% · 13

Aligned

sharpYes 73% · 11

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 66% · 29

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 41

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BE Bettong	Noavg 57.4¢	$38.8K	$41.0K	+$2.2K	55% 341-275 (616)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107	Noavg 50.5¢	$23.0K	$28.2K	+$6.0K	50% 2582-2633 (5215)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Yesavg 46.6¢	$22.8K	$18.5K	$-5.3K	38% 20-32 (52)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954jCTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$7.3K	$10.5K	+$3.3K	64% 85-47 (132)
EX Executor398CTR	Yesavg 62.8¢	$14.5K	$8.5K	$-6.0K	38% 358-584 (942)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 28.9¢	$6.2K	$7.9K	+$1.6K	39% 196-304 (500)
M2 M2sx92kljs42CTR	Yesavg 33¢	$5.9K	$6.6K	+$610.65	73% 350-129 (479)
WongKimArkCTR	Yesavg 40.5¢	$6.8K	$6.2K	-$543.33	63% 217-127 (344)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 23.1¢	$3.8K	$6.0K	+$2.2K	35% 35-64 (99)
KI Kimoo77CTR	Yesavg 63.2¢	$10.0K	$5.9K	$-4.2K	— 0-3 (3)
DonaldinhoTrumpito	Noavg 65.4¢	$5.4K	$5.2K	-$244.25	67% 506-251 (757)
mountaindewd	Noavg 35¢	$2.5K	$4.5K	+$2.0K	54% 344-290 (634)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Yesavg 31.7¢	$2.7K	$4.3K	+$1.6K	36% 2085-3721 (5806)
SU SunlineTicker	Noavg 41.8¢	$2.7K	$4.1K	+$1.4K	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
ST stupid22CTR	Yesavg 29.1¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$849.42	94% 411-26 (437)
IM immanuelcanCTR	Yesavg 50.5¢	$4.8K	$3.5K	$-1.3K	53% 906-789 (1695)
OR Oriya123CTR	Yesavg 37¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$7.53	— 1-0 (1)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$2.5K	$1.9K	-$599.88	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$183.26	42% 5283-7233 (12516)
11 11122CTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$1.3K	$1.8K	+$499.51	44% 1401-1817 (3218)
RE rebotsliafCTR	Yesavg 50.2¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$573.27	25% 185-564 (749)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 37.3¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$148.26	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
GollumGekko	Noavg 50.2¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$293.4	68% 2074-957 (3031)
AN Ante25CTR	Yesavg 65.8¢	$2.6K	$1.5K	$-1.2K	— 11-3 (14)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	+$90.69	76% 11352-3524 (14876)

Bettong

Invested

$38,789.48

Value

$41.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

55%

341-275 (616)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107

Invested

$22,952.62

Value

$28.2K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

50%

2582-2633 (5215)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Yes

Invested

$22,799.97

Value

$18.5K

PnL

$-5.3K

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

LJa7io23MCv954jCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,341.93

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

Executor398CTR

Yes

Invested

$14,471.99

Value

$8.5K

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

38%

358-584 (942)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$6,217.74

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

M2sx92kljs42CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,912.67

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$610.65

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

WongKimArkCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,772.26

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$543.33

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,768.45

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

Kimoo77CTR

Yes

Invested

$10,000

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

—

0-3 (3)

DonaldinhoTrumpito

Invested

$5,414.99

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$244.25

Record

67%

506-251 (757)

mountaindewd

Invested

$2,485.22

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

54%

344-290 (634)

HerrieDavisCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,705.26

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

36%

2085-3721 (5806)

SunlineTicker

Invested

$2,701.66

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

stupid22CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,879.98

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$849.42

Record

94%

411-26 (437)

immanuelcanCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,819.54

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

53%

906-789 (1695)

Oriya123CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$7.53

Record

—

1-0 (1)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,523.41

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$599.88

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,709.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$183.26

Record

42%

5283-7233 (12516)

11122CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,288.63

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$499.51

Record

44%

1401-1817 (3218)

rebotsliafCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,230.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$573.27

Record

25%

185-564 (749)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,490.3

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$148.26

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

GollumGekko

Invested

$1,243.82

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$293.4

Record

68%

2074-957 (3031)

Ante25CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,633.98

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

11-3 (14)

Elias.ThornwellCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,256.58

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$90.69

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

35 of 53 top traders (66%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)35 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

35 traders

Top 2 hold 29%

Freshness

Late

4874h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

67 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

66% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 29% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 69% · 13

Aligned

sharpYes 73% · 11

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 66% · 29

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 64% · 22

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 41

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.9%

36.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$164.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

264.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.