Consensus PnL -$15K · win rate 70% (650–281, n=931) · was PM monthly #963 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-14.8K
Record
650W / 281L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 931 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#744
Source
PM monthly #963
Trades
38
Markets
1,223
Volume
$513.7K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex $42 · now 3¢ · in at 68¢against the consensus (Team Spirit)
- Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs BESTIA - Map 2 WinnerBESTIA $12 · now 43¢ · in at 25¢with the consensus (83% of 7)
Specialties
302 settled consensus markets · held side won 97% at an average entry of 76¢- Esports
+31 pts
side won 100% of 61 · avg entry 69¢
ROI −9%
- NBA
+35 pts
side won 100% of 35 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +35%
- Crypto
+13 pts
side won 95% of 186 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 67% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 83% of 30)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 60)
- 70¢ and up: 65%(won 100% of 197)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.