Consensus PnL -$65K · win rate 55% (2113–1738, n=3851) · was PM monthly #854 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-64.7K
Record
2113W / 1738L
Win Rate
55.0%
of 3851 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1494
Source
PM monthly #854
Record (90 d)
1020/1851 · 55%
Trades
1,773
Markets
4,316
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerNatus Vincere $1.8K · now 67¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Team Falcons)
Specialties
3,667 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 52¢- Esports
+2 pts
side won 59% of 1855 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +2%
- MLB
+3 pts
side won 46% of 535 · avg entry 43¢
ROI +6%
- Tennis
+3 pts
side won 52% of 692 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 13% of 31 at an average 31¢ entry (−19 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 20% of 589)
- 30–50¢: 38%(won 43% of 1402)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 64% of 640)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 84% of 1036)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.