Consensus PnL $192K · win rate 51% (4848–4691, n=9539) · was PM monthly #973 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$192.4K
Record
4848W / 4691L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 9539 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1674
Source
PM monthly #973
Trades
1,410
Markets
13,209
Volume
$2.8M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Spread: Rams (-9.5)Chargers $288 · now 27¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Spread: Rams (-7.5)Chargers $4 · now 18¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Rams)
- Chiefs vs. Broncos: O/U 40.5Under $1 · now 9¢ · in at 31¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
Specialties
3,330 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 52¢- NFL
+44 pts
side won 100% of 45 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +44%
- College Football
+40 pts
side won 100% of 78 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +39%
- MLB
+19 pts
side won 69% of 1297 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +18%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 27% of 105 at an average 41¢ entry (−15 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 23% of 689)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 61% of 827)
- 50–70¢: 29%(won 84% of 952)
- 70¢ and up: 26%(won 97% of 862)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.