Consensus PnL $665K · win rate 49% (274–287, n=561) · PM monthly #704 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$664.8K
Record
274W / 287L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 561 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1989
Source
PM monthly #704
Record (90 d)
54/57 · 95%
Trades
624
Markets
755
Volume
$10.6M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Thunder vs. CavaliersThunder $898 · now 40¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Cavaliers)
Specialties
369 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 51¢- Soccer
+39 pts
side won 100% of 30 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +32%
- MLB
+32 pts
side won 83% of 204 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +30%
- NHL
+37 pts
side won 84% of 37 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 31% of 13)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 72% of 149)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 86% of 177)
- 70¢ and up: 8%(won 93% of 30)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.