Thunder vs. Cavaliers

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (67%) · Cavaliers at 61¢ · $22K held · ends Nov 3

Thunder40¢Cavaliers60¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$22.1K

Combined PnL

-$28.66

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 60.5¢

+0% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder40%

Cavaliers61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares17,812

Combined PnL+$7.79

Cavaliers10 traders

Total Value$12.9K

Total Shares21,464

Combined PnL-$36.45

Thunder — 33%Cavaliers — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrCavaliers 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Thunderavg 39¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$0	53% 625-550 (1175)
VI vibing123	Cavaliersavg 61¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$40.79	52% 1579-1465 (3044)
65 6512395314597884	Cavaliersavg 61¢	$1.2K	$2.4K	-$20.01	49% 2923-3042 (5965)
AA aaabbb	Cavaliersavg 61.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$22.68	50% 448-449 (897)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Cavaliersavg 58.2¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$62.31	54% 404-347 (751)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Cavaliersavg 60¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$28.47	58% 43592-31705 (75297)
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 60¢	$779.18	$792.16	+$12.99
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 38¢	$392.38	$402.71	+$15.49
OD OddstormARB<$100	Thunderavg 39.4¢	$648.17	$1.0K	-$9.35	48% 7156-7647 (14803)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 39.4¢	$540.09	$541.46	+$1.26
└ Cavaliers leg	Cavaliersavg 61¢	$506.65	$498.35	-$10.61
SU SunlineTicker	Cavaliersavg 61¢	$930.86	$930.86	-$0	62% 4291-2628 (6919)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Thunderavg 39¢	$898.29	$898.29	+$11.52	48% 345-373 (718)
38 38791873984189	Cavaliersavg 60.7¢	$438.27	$433.04	-$5.23	47% 12972-14546 (27518)
FE ferdinand2	Cavaliersavg 62¢	$337.99	$329.82	-$8.18	51% 991-958 (1949)
DA darkumbreon88	Cavaliersavg 60.8¢	$244.55	$241.15	-$1.39	65% 1808-987 (2795)
SU suntori	Cavaliersavg 61.1¢	$222.3	$221.91	-$0.39	44% 6439-8045 (14484)
poshposhCTR	Thunderavg 40.5¢	$208.79	$200.84	-$5.37	58% 11423-8278 (19701)
nigiri99CTR	Thunderavg 38.9¢	$168.01	$170.64	+$2.63	46% 7287-8594 (15881)
funnydayCTR<$100	Thunderavg 40¢	$80	$78	-$1	50% 3925-3907 (7832)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Cavaliersavg 61¢	$12.81	$12.6	-$0.11	53% 2312-2036 (4348)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Thunder

Invested

$5,600.99

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

625-550 (1175)

vibing123

Cavaliers

Invested

$4,977.04

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$40.79

Record

52%

1579-1465 (3044)

6512395314597884

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,219.97

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$20.01

Record

49%

2923-3042 (5965)

aaabbb

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,847.82

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$22.68

Record

50%

448-449 (897)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,573.11

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$62.31

Record

54%

404-347 (751)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$1,202.23

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$28.47

Record

58%

43592-31705 (75297)

Both legs:

Cavaliers$779.1860¢+$12.99

Thunder$392.3838¢+$15.49

OddstormARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$648.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.35

Record

48%

7156-7647 (14803)

Both legs:

Thunder$540.0939.4¢+$1.26

Cavaliers$506.6561¢-$10.61

SunlineTicker

Cavaliers

Invested

$930.86

Value

$930.86

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

4291-2628 (6919)

stackingsatsCTR

Thunder

Invested

$898.29

Value

$898.29

PnL

+$11.52

Record

48%

345-373 (718)

38791873984189

Cavaliers

Invested

$438.27

Value

$433.04

PnL

-$5.23

Record

47%

12972-14546 (27518)

ferdinand2

Cavaliers

Invested

$337.99

Value

$329.82

PnL

-$8.18

Record

51%

991-958 (1949)

darkumbreon88

Cavaliers

Invested

$244.55

Value

$241.15

PnL

-$1.39

Record

65%

1808-987 (2795)

suntori

Cavaliers

Invested

$222.3

Value

$221.91

PnL

-$0.39

Record

44%

6439-8045 (14484)

poshposhCTR

Thunder

Invested

$208.79

Value

$200.84

PnL

-$5.37

Record

58%

11423-8278 (19701)

nigiri99CTR

Thunder

Invested

$168.01

Value

$170.64

PnL

+$2.63

Record

46%

7287-8594 (15881)

funnydayCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$80

Value

$78

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

3925-3907 (7832)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$12.81

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

2312-2036 (4348)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

10 of 15 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Cavaliers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrCavaliers 58% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Cavaliers 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.