Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 68% (206–98, n=304) · PM monthly #673 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$15.5K
Record
206W / 98L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 304 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#825
Source
PM monthly #673
Trades
45
Markets
339
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?Yes $2.2K · now 75¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
Specialties
253 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 68¢- Esports
+19 pts
side won 86% of 176 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +20%
- MLB
+24 pts
side won 91% of 43 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +17%
- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 81% of 21 · avg entry 77¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 40% of 5)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 64% of 25)
- 50–70¢: 41%(won 86% of 104)
- 70¢ and up: 47%(won 92% of 119)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.