Consensus PnL $200K · win rate 63% (8369–4886, n=13255) · PM monthly #768 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$200.4K
Record
8369W / 4886L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 13255 settled
Batting Avg
40.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1001
Source
PM monthly #768
Trades
7,496
Markets
15,692
Volume
$9.7M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo $779 · now 55¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over $32 · now 38¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (60% of 29)
- Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under $14 · now 0¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Over)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Villanova WildcatsNotre Dame Fighting Irish $1 · now 8¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (Villanova Wildcats)
Specialties
6,950 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 62¢- NBA
+42 pts
side won 98% of 924 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +38%
- NFL
+40 pts
side won 100% of 213 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +35%
- MLB
+38 pts
side won 99% of 2320 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +36%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 92% of 192)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 97% of 1507)
- 50–70¢: 43%(won 99% of 3000)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 100% of 2251)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.