1. FC Union Berlin vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5

13 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (68%) · Over at 51¢ · $84K held · ended Nov 1

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 68%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$84.1K

Combined PnL

$-3.5K

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 50.5¢

-10% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 19 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over13 traders

Total Value$48.1K

Total Shares71,723

Combined PnL+$4.9K

Under6 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares62,697

Combined PnL$-8.4K

Over — 68%Under — 32%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 56.5¢	$20.3K	$24.6K	+$4.3K	50% 19450-19817 (39267)
KC Kch-TempCTR	Underavg 42.8¢	$26.0K	$18.8K	$-8.4K	51% 220-214 (434)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 57.5¢	$8.2K	$9.0K	+$852.45	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.8¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$810.53
└ Over leg	Overavg 57.5¢	$5.1K	$4.4K	+$41.92
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 56.6¢	$7.4K	$8.2K	+$724.62	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
BA Babooou	Overavg 56¢	$4.5K	$5.9K	-$40	52% 214-200 (414)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Overavg 56.8¢	$3.5K	$4.4K	-$30.05	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.8¢	$2.7K	$3.5K	-$60.1
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.5¢	$1.3K	$900.26	+$30.05
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Overavg 56¢	$2.8K	$3.7K	-$25	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
HI hi774c	Overavg 57.6¢	$2.3K	$2.8K	-$55.49	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$20	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	-$10
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$860	$620	+$30
0X 0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731	Overavg 53.2¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$75.88	32% 742-1577 (2319)
FO forecastication4	Overavg 56¢	$611.52	$808.08	-$5.46	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 59¢	$716.43	$765.87	+$49.44	50% 33863-33445 (67308)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.1¢	$374.99	$431.06	+$56.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$391.17	$334.82	-$6.63
MA manoamanoCTR	Underavg 44.1¢	$303.88	$307.97	+$4.08	51% 506-478 (984)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 56.9¢	$242.12	$292.17	+$2.5	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.9¢	$146.3	$190.18	-$3.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.6¢	$140.24	$101.99	+$6.17
fyrsken	Overavg 56¢	$200	$264.29	+$64.29	49% 290-305 (595)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$254.7	$263.19	+$8.49	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
LI Lilybaeum	Overavg 53.5¢	$179.96	$171.76	-$8.2	61% 13793-8671 (22464)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Overavg 57¢	$113.99	$147.99	-$3	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Overavg 57.4¢	$34.46	$44.4	-$1.16	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 44.3¢	$32.17	$30.15	-$2.03	50% 11182-10991 (22173)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44.1¢	$8.83	$9.9	+$1.07	53% 5640-5054 (10694)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 63¢	$8.09	$8.86	+$0.77	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
RN1<$100	Overavg 65¢	$5.29	$5.62	+$0.33	54% 57169-49417 (106586)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$1.58	$1.55	-$0.03	50% 697-693 (1390)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$20,337.45

Value

$24.6K

PnL

+$4.3K

Record

50%

19450-19817 (39267)

Kch-TempCTR

Under

Invested

$25,988.56

Value

$18.8K

PnL

$-8.4K

Record

51%

220-214 (434)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$8,195.53

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$852.45

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Both legs:

Under$3,791.1140.8¢+$810.53

Over$5,064.9257.5¢+$41.92

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$7,448.29

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$724.62

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

Babooou

Over

Invested

$4,479.99

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$40

Record

52%

214-200 (414)

CannaeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,524.94

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$30.05

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

Both legs:

Over$2,654.7256.8¢-$60.1

Under$1,262.2643.5¢+$30.05

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Over

Invested

$2,800

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$25

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$2,324

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$55.49

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,710

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$20

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

Both legs:

Over$1,12056¢-$10

Under$86043¢+$30

0xE5F0AE9cc9aeF77ae3c2A64c9E69caa3F335dc1d-1773531520731

Over

Invested

$1,477.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$75.88

Record

32%

742-1577 (2319)

forecastication4

Over

Invested

$611.52

Value

$808.08

PnL

-$5.46

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$716.43

Value

$765.87

PnL

+$49.44

Record

50%

33863-33445 (67308)

Both legs:

Under$374.9943.1¢+$56.07

Over$391.1759¢-$6.63

manoamanoCTR

Under

Invested

$303.88

Value

$307.97

PnL

+$4.08

Record

51%

506-478 (984)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$242.12

Value

$292.17

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

Both legs:

Over$146.356.9¢-$3.66

Under$140.2442.6¢+$6.17

fyrsken

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$264.29

PnL

+$64.29

Record

49%

290-305 (595)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Under

Invested

$254.7

Value

$263.19

PnL

+$8.49

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

Lilybaeum

Over

Invested

$179.96

Value

$171.76

PnL

-$8.2

Record

61%

13793-8671 (22464)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Over

Invested

$113.99

Value

$147.99

PnL

-$3

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Over

Invested

$34.46

Value

$44.4

PnL

-$1.16

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.17

Value

$30.15

PnL

-$2.03

Record

50%

11182-10991 (22173)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.83

Value

$9.9

PnL

+$1.07

Record

53%

5640-5054 (10694)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$8.09

Value

$8.86

PnL

+$0.77

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$5.29

Value

$5.62

PnL

+$0.33

Record

54%

57169-49417 (106586)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

697-693 (1390)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

13 of 19 top traders (68%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.