Consensus PnL -$1.9K · win rate 70% (228–100, n=328) · was PM monthly #799 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.9K
Record
228W / 100L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 328 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#752
Source
PM monthly #799
Trades
96
Markets
349
Volume
$265.9K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $349 · now 99¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (72% of 47)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?Yes $54 · now 50¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (24% of 17)
Specialties
283 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 69¢- Esports
+4 pts
side won 71% of 181 · avg entry 68¢
ROI −6%
- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 76% of 94 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 50% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 59% of 22)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 65% of 110)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 82% of 147)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.