Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 4 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Athletic Club win on 2026-11-01?

4 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (24%) · Yes at 50¢ · $135K held · ends Nov 1

Yes50¢No50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 24%

Total Value

$134.5K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 49.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 17 top traders (24%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$80.5K

Total Shares163,752

Combined PnL+$4.2K

No13 traders

Total Value$54.0K

Total Shares107,947

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Yes — 24%No — 76%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hovistomaradonaCTR	Yesavg 46.5¢	$52.0K	$54.8K	+$3.3K	57% 13-10 (23)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR	Yesavg 47.9¢	$23.9K	$24.6K	+$781.99	53% 1155-1007 (2162)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Noavg 52.5¢	$15.8K	$15.0K	-$600	47% 2574-2862 (5436)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 53.1¢	$15.3K	$14.4K	-$744.35	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 52.4¢	$9.0K	$8.5K	-$322.92	72% 6830-2625 (9455)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 52.6¢	$4.8K	$4.6K	-$195.14	50% 25666-25500 (51166)
CA Cannae	Noavg 53.1¢	$4.3K	$4.0K	-$208.94	53% 16119-14285 (30404)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 53¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	-$150.45	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Noavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$100	53% 5696-5031 (10727)
HI hi774c	Noavg 53¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$54.66	51% 4818-4540 (9358)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Yesavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$53.2	73% 3600-1329 (4929)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 50.1¢	$652.51	$657.86	+$5.35	49% 1199-1227 (2426)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 52.9¢	$310.44	$293.53	-$13.97	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 52.8¢	$223.41	$213.68	-$9.73	56% 14240-11046 (25286)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 52.5¢	$210	$200	-$8	54% 4943-4171 (9114)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 50.9¢	$94.13	$92.44	-$0.77	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
TR tripleh0829CTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$54.37	$53.83	-$0.54	67% 212-105 (317)

hovistomaradonaCTR

Yes

Invested

$51,999.79

Value

$54.8K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

57%

13-10 (23)

rabbitfoot1CTR

Yes

Invested

$23,851.99

Value

$24.6K

PnL

+$781.99

Record

53%

1155-1007 (2162)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Invested

$15,750

Value

$15.0K

PnL

-$600

Record

47%

2574-2862 (5436)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$15,276.36

Value

$14.4K

PnL

-$744.35

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$8,995.58

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$322.92

Record

72%

6830-2625 (9455)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,765.8

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$195.14

Record

50%

25666-25500 (51166)

Cannae

Invested

$4,276.08

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$208.94

Record

53%

16119-14285 (30404)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,196.93

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$150.45

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

53%

5696-5031 (10727)

hi774c

Invested

$1,158.83

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$54.66

Record

51%

4818-4540 (9358)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000.16

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$53.2

Record

73%

3600-1329 (4929)

forecastication4

Invested

$652.51

Value

$657.86

PnL

+$5.35

Record

49%

1199-1227 (2426)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$310.44

Value

$293.53

PnL

-$13.97

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ghorrock

Invested

$223.41

Value

$213.68

PnL

-$9.73

Record

56%

14240-11046 (25286)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$210

Value

$200

PnL

-$8

Record

54%

4943-4171 (9114)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$94.13

Value

$92.44

PnL

-$0.77

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

tripleh0829CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.37

Value

$53.83

PnL

-$0.54

Record

67%

212-105 (317)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 17 top traders (24%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

19% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Diverging

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.