Consensus PnL -$6.8K · win rate 70% (32006–13802, n=45808) · PM monthly #663 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-6.8K
Record
32006W / 13802L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 45808 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#728
Source
PM monthly #663
Trades
10,792
Markets
123,732
Volume
$18.5M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $39K · now 97¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
Specialties
6,831 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 62¢- Soccer
+49 pts
side won 100% of 27 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +45%
- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 65% of 6804 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +5%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 12% of 1115)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 35% of 1075)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 67% of 1211)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 92% of 3430)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.