Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

30 of 76 top Polymarket traders hold No (39%) · No at 97¢ · $4.5M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 39%

Total Value

$4.5M

Combined PnL

$610.5K

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 96.9¢

+21% since entry · 30 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 76 top traders (39%)46 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No30 traders

Total Value$4.4M

Total Shares4,548,371

Combined PnL+$758.3K

Yes46 traders

Total Value$48.7K

Total Shares1,534,907

Combined PnL$-147.7K

No — 39%Yes — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

39% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 56% · 34

Diverging

sharpNo 59% · 22

Aligned

sniperNo 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 91% · 33

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 33

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 59% · 61

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VelvetNova27	Noavg 77.7¢	$818.1K	$1.0M	+$201.6K	—
TA TahitiBob	Noavg 85.5¢	$884.7K	$1.0M	+$116.9K	—
KA KatsuManager87	Noavg 83.6¢	$676.7K	$783.8K	+$107.1K	—
BL blahblah344	Noavg 80.7¢	$413.3K	$529.6K	+$90.4K	—
YU yuahldj	Noavg 91.5¢	$278.1K	$294.4K	+$16.3K	— 9-2 (11)
19 1916JConnolly	Noavg 79.9¢	$133.0K	$161.1K	+$28.1K	—
BE BearKingdom	Noavg 55.2¢	$86.1K	$156.0K	+$65.9K	— 1-1 (2)
0X 0x0D50d8b4407447eAdb428fE20E48dEaa84D8AeC0-1778592192986	Noavg 38¢	$49.4K	$126.0K	+$76.6K	—
AS asdf1412	Noavg 73.5¢	$92.1K	$121.3K	+$29.2K	—
tourists	Noavg 85.8¢	$40.6K	$42.2K	+$1.6K	66% 427-222 (649)
EA EamonnD1812	Noavg 76.5¢	$30.9K	$39.1K	+$8.2K	—
UN uninformedfloww	Noavg 73.4¢	$29.4K	$38.7K	+$9.4K	57% 71695-54608 (126303)
TR Trump2028	Noavg 92¢	$27.6K	$29.1K	+$1.5K	82% 402-89 (491)
CH chriszyy3	Noavg 94.5¢	$21.0K	$21.5K	+$511.11	94% 242-16 (258)
TH thoodr	Noavg 95¢	$20.9K	$21.3K	+$413.07	96% 631-24 (655)
WA wan123CTR	Yesavg 11.1¢	$59.8K	$17.0K	$-42.8K	39% 196-304 (500)
WongKimArk	Noavg 64.4¢	$6.9K	$10.4K	+$3.5K	63% 217-127 (344)
ImJustKenCTR	Yesavg 17.9¢	$39.7K	$9.8K	$-29.9K	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
aenews2CTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$16.8K	$4.2K	$-12.6K	60% 1773-1174 (2947)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$21.1K	$4.0K	$-17.2K	35% 35-64 (99)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 87¢	$2.6K	$2.9K	+$295.5	87% 95-14 (109)
Dropper	Noavg 83¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$328.46	71% 1136-463 (1599)
elmcap2	Noavg 94¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$57	89% 1665-205 (1870)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$7.5K	$1.6K	$-5.9K	53% 915-808 (1723)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 11.2¢	$3.9K	$1.1K	$-2.8K	36% 190-333 (523)

VelvetNova27

Invested

$818,129.52

Value

$1.0M

PnL

+$201.6K

Record

—

TahitiBob

Invested

$884,737.8

Value

$1.0M

PnL

+$116.9K

Record

—

KatsuManager87

Invested

$676,744.53

Value

$783.8K

PnL

+$107.1K

Record

—

blahblah344

Invested

$413,285.27

Value

$529.6K

PnL

+$90.4K

Record

—

yuahldj

Invested

$278,080.17

Value

$294.4K

PnL

+$16.3K

Record

—

9-2 (11)

1916JConnolly

Invested

$133,000.74

Value

$161.1K

PnL

+$28.1K

Record

—

BearKingdom

Invested

$86,073.08

Value

$156.0K

PnL

+$65.9K

Record

—

1-1 (2)

0x0D50d8b4407447eAdb428fE20E48dEaa84D8AeC0-1778592192986

Invested

$49,388.7

Value

$126.0K

PnL

+$76.6K

Record

—

asdf1412

Invested

$92,055.11

Value

$121.3K

PnL

+$29.2K

Record

—

tourists

Invested

$40,578.29

Value

$42.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

66%

427-222 (649)

EamonnD1812

Invested

$30,915.62

Value

$39.1K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

—

uninformedfloww

Invested

$29,362.16

Value

$38.7K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

57%

71695-54608 (126303)

Trump2028

Invested

$27,641.23

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

82%

402-89 (491)

chriszyy3

Invested

$21,010.9

Value

$21.5K

PnL

+$511.11

Record

94%

242-16 (258)

thoodr

Invested

$20,893.99

Value

$21.3K

PnL

+$413.07

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

wan123CTR

Yes

Invested

$59,842.22

Value

$17.0K

PnL

$-42.8K

Record

39%

196-304 (500)

WongKimArk

Invested

$6,897.23

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

63%

217-127 (344)

ImJustKenCTR

Yes

Invested

$39,656.92

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-29.9K

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

aenews2CTR

Yes

Invested

$16,840.12

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-12.6K

Record

60%

1773-1174 (2947)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$21,137.47

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-17.2K

Record

35%

35-64 (99)

skibabiba

Invested

$2,610

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$295.5

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

Dropper

Invested

$1,968.26

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$328.46

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

elmcap2

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$57

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Yes

Invested

$7,499.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-5.9K

Record

53%

915-808 (1723)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$3,911.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

30 of 76 top traders (39%)46 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

30 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

39% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 56% · 34

Diverging

sharpNo 59% · 22

Aligned

sniperNo 90% · 10

Aligned

ctrYes 91% · 33

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 33

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 59% · 61

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.0%

96.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.